Starlink loses 2,000 users in Kenya as subscription freeze bites

Elon Musk’s Starlink, once hailed as a game-changer for Kenya’s internet landscape, has hit a roadblock. The satellite internet provider’s market share plummeted to 0.9% by March 2025 (down from 1.1% in December 2024) after a seven-month freeze on subscriptions in key regions like Nairobi.

According to the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), Starlink lost over 2,000 subscribers in a single quarter, dropping from 19,146 to 17,066 users. 

Since entering Kenya in July 2023, Starlink has disrupted the internet market with a high-speed, low-latency satellite connection that is ideal for rural areas where traditional services falter.

By September 2024, the company had captured an impressive 1.1% market share, climbing to seventh among Kenya’s internet service providers (ISPs). Its subscriber base surged from 8,063 in June 2024 to 19,146 by year-end.

This growth was fuelled by an aggressive pricing campaign and a rental plan for its hardware kit that slashed the cost from Sh89,000 to Sh45,500.

However, growth stalled when Starlink suspended new subscriptions in Nairobi and neighbouring counties, Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, and Murang’a, in November 2024, citing network overload. “Too many users are trying to access our service, which is affecting bandwidth,” the company stated on its website, marking affected areas as “sold out”.

This freeze led to a 10.9% subscriber drop, pushing Starlink to eighth place among ISPs by March 2025.

Local competitors are seizing the opportunity

The subscription freeze has opened the door for local ISPs to reclaim some ground.

Safaricom, Kenya’s leading ISP with a 36.1% market share, capitalised on the gap by promoting its 5G routers, priced at just Sh3,000 ($23) compared to Starlink’s Sh45,000 ($348) kit. Safaricom’s aggressive marketing and affordable packages have drawn users in peri-urban areas, where Starlink’s high costs remain a barrier despite its rural appeal.

Safaricom introduced a 1,000 Mbps package, and average fixed internet speeds hit 11.59 Mbps in October 2024, up 18.5% from January, per Meltwater data.

Other ISPs, like Poa Internet Kenya (13.8% of the market share) and Vilcom Network Limited (3.2%), also gained traction, while Jamii Telecommunications Limited (JTL) and Wananchi Group’s Zuku saw slight share declines.

President William Ruto praised this competition in September 2024, stating, “Starlink causes local competitors to provide better services,” during a UN General Assembly speech.

Starlink’s challenges extend beyond capacity issues. Local ISPs, led by Safaricom, have protested its operating model, alleging predatory pricing and potential interference with mobile networks.

The CA notes that Kenya’s fixed internet subscriptions grew 13% to 1.5 million by June 2024, reflecting heightened competition sparked by its market entry.

In August 2024, Safaricom urged the CA to require satellite providers to partner with local operators, citing security risks. Jamii Telecommunications echoed these concerns, accusing Starlink of offering unsustainable discounts, such as its Sh1,300 50GB plan, which undercuts competitors like Airtel’s Sh3,000 equivalent.

The Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) dismissed predatory pricing claims, noting Starlink’s small market share disqualifies it as a dominant player. However, new regulatory hurdles loom. The CA plans to raise satellite licence fees nearly tenfold to Sh15 million and impose a 0.4% turnover levy, potentially straining its finances.

For Kenyan users, Starlink’s slowdown has mixed implications. Rural communities, where fibre and mobile coverage are weak, still rely on their high-speed connectivity. Yet, its download speeds have dropped from 200 Mbps at launch to 47 Mbps by March 2025, according to Ookla, making it the second-slowest in Africa after Madagascar.

Starlink’s stumble in Kenya underscores the challenges of scaling satellite internet in a competitive, regulated market. While its innovative technology still holds promise for underserved areas, capacity issues and local pushback have curbed its momentum.

Starlink’s R2-billion bet to break into South Africa’s internet market

While Starlink struggles in Kenya, it is eyeing a bold expansion elsewhere in Africa. The company is considering an R2-billion ($112.7 million) investment in South Africa to navigate the country’s stringent Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) regulations and secure an operating licence.

The investment would fund infrastructure like earth stations with fibre-optic connections to data centres, supporting the 16-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) region

By partnering with local firms for construction, land leasing, fibre, energy, and maintenance, Starlink aims to meet South Africa’s regulatory demands while expanding high-speed internet access, particularly in underserved rural areas.

This follows Starlink’s earlier pledge of R500 million to provide free broadband to 5,000 rural South African schools, signalling a focus on digital inclusion. However, challenges persist, with critics like the EFF accusing Starlink of seeking to bypass BEE rules requiring 30% local ownership by historically disadvantaged groups.

Regulatory delays could push the company’s South African launch to 2027, as the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) finalises equity-equivalent frameworks, leaving Starlink’s ambitious plans in limbo.