Bitcoin price could fall below $40k despite ETF approval; here’s what to expect this week 

Less than two weeks ago, the much-anticipated spot Bitcoin Exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved to much fanfare and positive reception. But the development which was expected to be followed by a Bitcoin price rally for the flagship digital currency has done little or nothing to spark excitement in the market.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation surged towards the $49,000 level from around $46,000 when the news broke, but has now fallen much below that region. At press time, Bitcoin is exchanging hands at $40,820, per Coinmarketcap data, with speculations that it might drop even further.

Also, data from Google Trends data searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin ETF’ dropped to a ranking of less than 8 as of Monday, from a maximum interest of 100 that it reached on January 10, the day the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin-focused investment products.

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This dearth of excitement has led to a lot of speculation around the exact direction Bitcoin is headed considering the fact that the flagship cryptocurrency leads all other assets in the market. 

Below are a few perspectives. 

Bitcoin price in the short-term

The earlier-mentioned trends have left the cryptocurrency market in an uncertain position, resulting in analysts struggling to find a clear trend in Bitcoin prices.  Attention has now shifted to a short-term price trajectory, with the crypto facing the risk of losing the crucial $40,000 support level.

Note that on Saturday, there was widespread speculation that Bitcoin price might drop further after the asset plunged below $41,000. While the apex cryptocurrency did not experience a significant downturn over the weekend, it did fail to provide much optimism for traders hoping for new record highs.

In looking at the Bitcoin price forecast, technical expert FieryTrading, in a TradingView post this weekend, outlined the potential outlook for Bitcoin post-ETF hype. He suggested that a move towards $31,000 for Bitcoin price is plausible based on the historical trajectory. 

Adding that:

“So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the $ 15,500 bottom, so around $31,000. With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards $31,000 is not even that far-fetched, since it functioned as a very important resistance of the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet.” 

Long-term catalyst 

Since ETF approval isn’t providing short-term gains in terms of Bitcoin price action, attention has shifted to longer catalysts, particularly the upcoming halving event scheduled for April. Analysts expect that the BTC ETF will be complemented by the halving, which comes around once in four years.

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To put this into perspective, SkyBridge Capital founder, Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin might trade at $170,000 by 2025, attributing the increase to a combination of the ETF and halving event.

In conclusion, despite Bitcoin’s abysmal reaction to the ETF approval, the product’s overall performance has been applaudable. The scheme has attracted significant trading volume within days and there is potential that more will still come.