Global PC shipments totalled 62.9 million units in the third quarter of 2024, a 1.3% decline from the same period in 2023, according to preliminary data from Gartner, Inc. This dip follows three-quarters of year-over-year growth, but analysts maintain that the market is still on track for recovery.
The moderate decline is largely attributed to unfulfilled demand for AI-enabled PCs and slower-than-expected upgrades ahead of the end of Windows 10 support in 2025.
For emphasis, the decline in demand for PCs is mainly due to two factors. First, there has been a gap between the anticipated and actual demand for AI-enabled PCs, as consumers have yet to embrace this new technology fully. Second, the expected surge in PC upgrades ahead of the 2025 end of Windows 10 support has been slower than projected, with many users postponing their purchases. This combination has contributed to the moderate decrease in overall PC sales.
While the AI revolution in PCs, including those running on both Arm and x86 architectures, has sparked interest, the report says it has not yet materialised in significant demand.
Buyers remain unconvinced of the immediate business value of these AI-powered machines.
According to Mikako Kitagawa, Director Analyst at Gartner, the full impact of AI PCs may become clearer in the coming quarters as their applications and benefits will be more widely demonstrated.
What happened in the second quarter?
According to Gartner, Inc., worldwide PC shipments totalled 60.6 million units in the second quarter of 2024, a 1.9% increase from the second quarter of 2023.
“The low year-on-year growth, together with stabilised sequential growth, indicates that the market is on the right track to recovery”, Kitagawa said
He added: “With 7.8% sequential growth between the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter, PC inventory is tracking back to an average level. We continue to see no major supply chain issues, allowing for the market to be perfectly set up for continued growth with major platform updates on the horizon.”
In the U.S. market, the 5.6% year-over-year growth with over 17 million units shipped reflects an ongoing recovery, especially in public and education sectors, as demand stabilises after disruptions like supply chain issues and inflation. This strong performance contrasts with the previous two quarters when market dynamics were more mixed.
Q2 2024: The market saw more modest growth or a slight contraction due to macroeconomic concerns like inflation and reduced consumer spending. The education sector was weaker after the heavy buying cycles triggered by the pandemic, while businesses focused on inventory management rather than aggressive purchasing.
Q1 2024: The start of 2024 saw sluggish growth as the market was still digesting excess inventory. This resulted in limited unit shipments, as companies like HP and Dell focused on clearing stock rather than aggressively competing for shares.
Competitive dynamics
HP Inc. leading the U.S. market with 24.8% is consistent with its position over the last two quarters. HP has benefited from strong education and government contracts, but its share fluctuated slightly in earlier quarters due to competition in the premium and gaming PC segments.
Dell Technologies: Dell’s 23.6% share indicates a recovery. Dell’s performance had been impacted earlier by cautious enterprise spending and weakened demand. However, its enterprise solutions and public sector offerings helped it rebound as those sectors picked up in the latest quarter.
Overall, HP and Dell have maintained strong competitive positions, though Dell’s resurgence points to better alignment with sector-specific demand. The current performance shows more robust growth compared to the challenges they faced in the first two quarters of 2024.
The educational sector’s demand for Chromebooks has been particularly noteworthy, reflecting replacement cycles for devices bought during the pandemic.
In contrast, the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region saw a 1.5% decline after three quarters of growth. Political instability, particularly elections in the UK and France, and distractions from major sporting events were cited as key reasons for subdued spending.
Despite the decline, Kitagawa emphasised that this should be seen as a market stabilisation rather than a return to long-term contraction.
Meanwhile, Asia/Pacific experienced a significant 8.5% decline, mainly driven by a 10% drop in China’s PC market. Economic challenges and reduced demand for desktop PCs from government sectors in China have impacted the region’s overall performance.
However, Japan stood out with double-digit growth, thanks to businesses preparing for the upcoming end of Windows 10 support.
Vendor performance
Lenovo retained its top spot globally, with a 2.5% increase to secure a 26.3% market share. HP Inc. also saw modest growth, with its shipments rising by 0.3%, maintaining its second-place position.
Apple experienced the highest growth rate among major vendors at 3.5%, driven by consumer demand for its premium offerings.
Dell and ASUS, however, saw declines of 3.9% and 3.0%, respectively, as they struggled to maintain momentum in the face of shifting consumer and enterprise preferences.
Gartner’s data shows Apple’s PC shipment figures in Q1 increased slowly. Acer came in first with the most growth, increasing shipments by 7.3% year-on-year.
Future projections
Looking ahead, the global PC market is expected to see renewed growth towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
The Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in 2025 is projected to trigger a significant refresh cycle, as businesses and consumers upgrade to Windows 11 or AI-enabled PCs.
AI PCs are expected to gain more traction as their practical applications, such as productivity boosts and intelligent automation, become clearer to end-users.
The recovery is likely to be uneven across regions, with the U.S. and Japan expected to lead the way, while China and parts of EMEA may continue to face challenges due to economic uncertainties.
However, as the global economy stabilises, demand is expected to pick up, helping the PC market return to growth after this brief downturn.
While the 1.3% decline in Q3 2024 may seem like a setback, the global PC market remains on a recovery path. AI-driven innovations, the Windows 10 refresh cycle, and regional economic improvements will be key to shaping its trajectory through 2025 and beyond.
A closer look at the META region
For 2024, PC shipments into Africa and the broader Middle East, Türkiye, and Africa (META) region have grown across the first three quarters.
Q1 2024: PC shipments to Africa grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY), contributing to the overall META region shipping 3.53 million units of personal computing devices (PCDs) such as desktops, notebooks, and workstations. This marked a strong 12.2% YoY increase across the META region, driven by commercial and consumer demand.
Q2 2024: The upward trend continued with a global increase of 3% in PC shipments, buoyed by new AI-capable PCs and businesses preparing for Windows 11 upgrades. For the META region, shipments remained robust, though detailed data specific to Africa in Q2 is scarce.
Q3 2024: While global shipments experienced a slight dip of 2.4% YoY in Q3 2024, META continued to show strong demand, particularly in business and education AI-enabled PCs began accounting for a larger share of the shipments, driving innovation and stimulating premium market growth.
For 2024, the META region is expected to see approximately 13.55 million units shipped, reflecting steady but not explosive growth.