With the Presidential elections heating up, we have a new tool that is more powerful than ever before that will not impact only the odds, but also the winner of the elections. We are talking about social media!
Yes, social media was present in past presidential elections, but it didn’t have this much reach. After all, have you noticed how both U.S. presidential nominees shifted to social media to promote their campaigns? They reach hundreds of millions of views in just a few hours, and this impacts both their rating, how will people eventually vote and the overall 2024 presidential election odds.
Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok are on the front line of this election, and although they have strict rules when it comes to promoting election content, they cannot limit free speech and what people have to say.
So, how are these platforms impacting the outcome of the Presidential election in 2024? Let’s find out.
Read also: The dangers of Instagram algorithms
How Do Social Media Algorithms Work?
The most important thing to understand here is how these algorithms work. I think we all want to know that, but no company will tell us how it works exactly. There are few metrics that determine whether or not a post or a video is going to get viral or reach more people.
We are talking about engagement, watch-time, user preferences, relevancy, bounce rate, and a bunch of other factors.
But what about political content? Well, I don’t think there is a fine line determining the generic promotion of political content. However, algorithms are smart enough to analyze your behaviour and feed you content that aligns with your existing beliefs while filtering out opposing views.
This is kind of an “echo chamber” that like it or not creates a polarized environment, where people don’t get to hear both sides of the story.
Additionally, the virality of such content plays a crucial role in the Presidential Elections. If one candidate’s content goes viral, their chances of winning spike dramatically. And, we are not only talking about the number of followers a candidate gets but the overall public sentiment generated by the constant exposure of their content.
After all, there is a reason why both Trump and Harris (mostly Trump) use influencers and social media people in their posts. Trump has made a video with Logan Paul, Dana White, and even popular streamers like Adin Ross.
The Data Game
Ever wonder why some posts seem to blow up out of nowhere? That’s the algorithm at work. Social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have intricate algorithms designed to push content that keeps users engaged.
For example, during the 2020 election, Donald Trump’s frequent and controversial tweets often dominated headlines. His ability to generate engagement boosted his visibility online, which some argue played a role in his campaign’s momentum.
Fast forward to 2024, and the game is even more intense. According to recent studies, candidates with stronger social media presence are seeing increased betting odds. This isn’t random; it’s data-driven.
When social media platforms favour content based on likes, shares, and comments, the more controversial or engaging a candidate is, the more they dominate the online conversation. As a result, political betting markets adjust their odds based on this online activity, reflecting a perception that engagement equals electability.
How These Algorithms Impact Public Opinion
When it comes to shaping public opinion, social media algorithms are like invisible puppet masters behind the curtain. They dictate what you see when you see it, and how often it gets shoved into your timeline. These algorithms create curated experiences based on your past behaviour, meaning you’re more likely to engage with content that aligns with your beliefs. It’s like being in an echo chamber with the volume cranked up.
By repeatedly serving content that reinforces your existing political stance, platforms can subtly, or sometimes not so subtly, push users deeper into their ideological corners. This isn’t just hypothetical—studies have shown that platforms like Facebook and Twitter are key in amplifying political polarization.
And in the 2024 election, this targeted content isn’t just influencing who people vote for—it’s affecting how they feel about the candidates, sometimes turning a slight preference into full-blown support or disdain.
Can Algorithms Be “Hacked” by Campaigns?
In a way, yes. Campaigns understand how these platforms work and are continuously finding ways to optimize their content to get more reach. This includes creating shareable, click-worthy content that algorithms will promote.
They use data analytics to figure out which issues resonate most with voters and then craft messages designed to provoke engagement.
Campaigns also make heavy use of targeted ads to get specific messages in front of certain demographics. In 2024, expect to see a flood of political ads tailored to fit the preferences of different voter groups. These ads won’t just affect public opinion; they will also shape how bookmakers set their odds, as social media buzz is a major factor in perception.
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