MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita, has warned that the global tariff war arising from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff and trade policies could significantly disrupt capital spending in the telecommunications industry.
Speaking at a media event held at MTN’s headquarters in Fairland, Johannesburg, Mupita highlighted how rising radio equipment costs, driven by sustained tariffs, could ripple through global supply chains and challenge operators across Africa and beyond.
Mupita’s remarks come amid growing uncertainty following Trump’s administration’s renewed focus on protectionist trade policies. The MTN chief cautioned that the world is “a month or two away” from seeing the economic consequences fully materialise.
“We anticipate that global growth will slow, and the tariffs, especially if they are sustained over a long period, will keep inflation more elevated than it would otherwise have been,” he said. This inflationary pressure, he added, could increase the cost of critical telecommunications infrastructure, particularly radio equipment, forcing operators to reassess their pricing strategies to offset the financial strain.
MTN, Africa’s largest mobile operator by revenue, has allocated about $2 billion for capital expenditure (capex) on network infrastructure in its 2025 financial year. This investment is aimed at expanding and upgrading its networks across 17 African markets to meet growing demand for data and connectivity.
However, Mupita emphasised that the nature of capex requires meticulous planning, including securing equipment supplies well in advance.
MTN is shielded from the likely impact of Trump’s tariffs
“We will be largely shielded from shocks to our supply chain this year as those deals are just about concluded,” he noted, suggesting that MTN’s proactive procurement strategy may cushion it from immediate disruptions in 2025.
A key factor in MTN’s resilience, Mupita explained, is its reliance on Chinese vendors, particularly Huawei Technologies, for the bulk of its radio equipment. With an average revenue per user (ARPU) of just $5 across its African customer base, far below the $60-plus seen in European markets, cost efficiency is paramount for MTN.
“We source more of our kit from the more affordable Chinese vendors instead of others like Europe’s Ericsson,” he said, underscoring the economic realities that shape MTN’s supply chain decisions.
Huawei’s dominance in the global radio equipment market, supplying roughly 85% of the world’s needs, further bolsters MTN’s position, even as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate.
The Trump administration’s tariff policies, which include steep levies on Chinese goods, have raised concerns about a potential bifurcation of global technology markets.
Analysts have warned of a “splinternet”, where differing standards and supply chains could emerge between East and West. For MTN, which operates a hybrid network with European core infrastructure and Chinese radio components, navigating this divide requires a pragmatic approach.
“We are not aligning ourselves; we are just choosing components that best fit our network,” Mupita said at a recent engagement, reflecting MTN’s strategy of adopting best practices from both markets.
Despite its short-term buffer, MTN is not immune to longer-term challenges. If tariffs persist, inflationary pressures could erode the cost advantages of Chinese equipment, forcing MTN and other operators to either absorb higher expenses or pass them on to consumers.
This dilemma is particularly acute in Africa, where low ARPU and economic volatility already limit pricing flexibility. Mupita acknowledged this tension, noting, “What we believe companies of our nature have to watch is supply chains and where the inputs from those supply chains come from.” He hinted at potential adjustments to MTN’s operational model.
The broader telecom industry is also bracing for impact. Experts suggest that sustained tariffs could exacerbate existing pressures, such as currency volatility and geopolitical instability, which already complicate operations in MTN’s key markets like Nigeria and South Africa.
A report from GSMA Intelligence earlier this year projected that mobile internet penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa would rise from 57% in 2023 to 65% by 2030, driven by investments in infrastructure. However, rising equipment costs could slow this progress, undermining efforts to bridge the continent’s digital divide.
Mupita’s warning aligns with his broader vision for MTN, articulated through the company’s “Ambition 2025” strategy. Launched in 2021, the plan seeks to transform MTN from a traditional telecom provider into a diversified technology platform, with investments in fintech, digital services, and infrastructure.
Yet, external shocks like Trump’s tariffs could test this ambition, particularly as MTN competes with regional rivals and global tech giants entering African markets.
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