How long will this crypto bull run last? A predictive analysis

The crypto market is buzzing with excitement as the 2024 bull run takes centre stage, setting new records and drawing in droves of investors. The King of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin smashed the $100,000 price barrier, bringing with it an upward surge in the prices of altcoins like BNB, TRX, XRP, SOL and others.

Now, crypto enthusiasts and sceptics alike are wondering: How long can this bull run last?

In this article, we will explore the factors driving this exhilarating rally, analyse emerging trends, and attempt to predict how far into 2025 (or beyond) the crypto party might continue.  

Read also: Crypto bull run: Aside Bitcoin, here are 3 coins that you can invest in, this season

What is fueling the current rally?

The 2024 bull run has been nothing short of extraordinary, driven by a combination of global events, market developments, and investor optimism. 

The influx of institutional investors is a hallmark of this bull run. Data from crypto exchanges reveals that average Bitcoin deposits increased dramatically—from 0.36 BTC in 2023 to 1.65 BTC in 2024. Similarly, Tether’s stablecoin, USDt, has seen deposit values skyrocket from $19,600 to $230,000, showcasing the growing role of corporate players in the market.  

With Binance reporting a 40% increase in its corporate client base this year, it’s evident that big money is pouring into the market. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has further bolstered confidence, making cryptocurrencies more accessible to traditional investors.

Some traders are also keeping an eye on less popular coins, which are on the bull run. For example, the Pi price today had a 6% growth, and it’s been up over 40% in the last month. 

Equally significant, the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States has sent shockwaves of positivity through the crypto world. His administration’s promises, including replacing SEC leadership and exploring a strategic US Bitcoin reserve, have raised hopes for a friendlier regulatory landscape. Investors are banking on these policies to bring clarity and stability, which could sustain the current market momentum.  

Examining previous trends 

Crypto bull runs are not new.

They tend to follow cycles, often driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce the supply of new coins entering the market. The most recent halving occurred in 2024, adding a layer of scarcity to Bitcoin that has historically fueled rallies.  

However, bull runs don’t last forever.

For context, the 2017 bull run lasted approximately a year, peaking in December before the market entered a prolonged bear phase. Similarly, the 2021 bull run spanned several months, losing steam after Bitcoin reached its then-ATH of $69,000 in November before the market crashed in 2022.

Factors that can make this bull run even longer 

With corporate and professional investors firmly entrenched, thanks to Spot BTC ETF approval, this bull run has a sturdier foundation compared to previous cycles, which were largely retail-driven. The broader acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against inflation could keep prices climbing.  

Also, if Trump’s administration delivers on its promises, the US market, one of the largest in the world, could unlock new levels of participation. Favourable regulations could also encourage other countries to follow suit, creating a ripple effect of investor confidence.  

Additionally, the ongoing “altseason” is another critical factor. Coins like BNB and TRX are reaching new all-time highs, pulling more capital into the market, which could extend this rally.  

While optimism runs high, there are potential risks that could derail the bull run. A rapid influx of liquidity often leads to over-leveraged positions and inflated prices. If the market becomes overheated, a sharp correction could follow.  

Also, rising interest rates or a downturn in the broader economy could impact the flow of institutional money into crypto and unforeseen geopolitical tensions could create uncertainty and dampen investor enthusiasm. 

Equally, while favourable regulations are largely expected, sudden crackdowns or ambiguous policies could shake the market’s confidence.  

Related post: Bitcoin Halving: What you need to know and how it affects your wallet?

So, how long will this bull run last?

Given the current dynamics, the 2024 bull run will extend well into 2025, potentially aligning with Trump’s inauguration in January and the subsequent rollout of pro-crypto policies. 

Analysts predict that Bitcoin’s next price targets could range between $120,000 and $150,000, with altcoins continuing to enjoy exponential growth. Ajose Gideon, founder of Cyberville, a digital finance trading academy, expects the bull run to last till May 2025. After that:

“We would have a normal cycle dump which will be fully retraced by September or October as is the behaviour with other cycles.

My reasons are the bullishness of the whole market with respect to Donald Trump’s win but if Donald gets to the White House and starts making economically unwise decisions you can tell that it will become a complete downturn from there.” – Ajose Gideon. 

On the other hand, Obinna Iwuno, one of the preeminent crypto traders in Nigeria gives a more auspicious outlook.

According to him, with Donald Trump coming in and being pro-crypto, at least the first year of his administration which is the whole of 2025 and going into 2026, the bull run is going to be sustained. 

“We could already see the effect of him just winning the election has been on the market. Imagine when he now comes in to implement things he talked about like bringing in a pro-crypto SEC chairman, bitcoin miners to relocate to the US and others.”  – Obinna Iwuno. 

Ultimately, this writer believes that a gradual slowdown is likely by mid to late 2025, as the market begins to consolidate gains and investors take profits. The pace of regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic stability as Ajose Gideon mentioned, will ultimately determine the rally’s duration.

But for now, let’s revel in the momentum.