In the wake of the presidential elections in the United States of America, the price of the leading crypto coin, Bitcoin (BTC) has strengthened by 2.4% over the past 24 hours to cross the $70,000 mark in early trading today. Analysts believe that the surge was helped along by a surge in momentum for crypto-friendly GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Other crypto-linked stocks were on the move as well. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) notably continues to underperform bitcoin. At 0.03526, the ETH/BTC ratio fell to its weakest level since April 2021.
In traditional markets, the Nasdaq was higher by more than 1% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. Gold and oil were moderately in the green and the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was up seven basis points to 4.36%.
The crypto market’s reaction appears influenced by the narrowing lead of Donald Trump in election polls, traditionally seen as more favourable towards cryptocurrencies, some traders said.
Polls continue to show a tight race for the U.S. presidency and the control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Betting market Polymarket shows sizably higher odds for a Donald Trump victory, currently 62% versus a Kamala Harris win at 38%. The odds for a Republican sweep of the presidency, the House and the Senate are at 39%, while the odds of a Democrat sweep are at 16%.
Read also: African startups raised $254m in October 2024 led by Moniepoint’s unicorn-making raise
Similarly, Dogecoin (DOGE) has gained over 10% in value in the past 24 hours. The meme coin has risen 50% in the past 30 days on a renewed endorsement by technology entrepreneur Elon Musk as part of the Republican campaign. Musk has been proposing a Department of Government Efficiency, which he abbreviated as D.O.G.E.
This sentiment is directly opposed to the market reaction as of yesterday. Bitcoin lost nearly 3%, and all major tokens registered losses between 1%-5%. Bitcoin fell as defunct exchange Mt.Gox sent $2.2 billion worth of tokens from its storage to new wallets. These have historically preceded creditor repayments and caused prices to dip lower, and traders expect short-term selling pressure when the assets are further moved to exchanges.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded $541 million in net outflows on Monday, the highest since May.
Traders believed that the reaction came amid shifting election polls that have neared coin-toss odds on some marketplaces. “Markets are falling because traders are no longer confident that Trump will have an easy victory on Tuesday, and that doesn’t bode well for crypto as he’s been perceived as the more pro-crypto candidate,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk.
At that point, former president Trump’s chances had declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). “It’s crazy how correlated bitcoin price action is to Trump’s election odds,” wrote analyst Miles Deutscher on X.
Bitcoin last saw a similar price swing in early August when the unwinding of the so-called risk-on yen carry traders led to broad-based risk aversion, sending BTC down to $50,000. The 50-50 odds indicate that an eventual outcome is unlikely to surprise markets, irrespective of who wins.